PT Journal
AU Gorzelanczyk, P
   Jurkovic, M
   Kalina, T
   Mohanty, M
TI Forecasting the road accident rate and the impact of the covid 19 on its frequency in the polish provinces
SO Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina
PY 2022
BP A216
EP A231
VL 24
IS 4
DI 10.26552/com.C.2022.4.A216-A231
WP https://komunikacie.uniza.sk/artkey/csl-202204-0020.php
DE road accident; COVID 19; forecasting; Brownian model; Holt model; Winters model
SN 13354205
AB The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the development of road transport, not only in Poland, but also worldwide. Limited mobility, especially at the beginning of the pandemic, had a large impact on the number of road accidents. The aim of the present study is to predict the number of road accidents in Poland and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on variability of the number of road accidents. To attain the objective, annual data on the road accidents for every province in Poland were collected and analysed. Based on historical crash data, obtained from the police, the number of road accidents was forecasted for both pandemic and non-pandemic scenarios. Selected time series models and exponential models were used to forecast the number of accidents.
ER