PT Journal
AU Amulah, N
   Ekwe, E
   Ishaq, M
   Oluwole, F
TI Grey Model Analysis of Vehicle Population, Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions
SO Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina
PY 2023
BP A1
EP A13
VL 25
IS 1
DI 10.26552/com.C.2023.006
WP https://komunikacie.uniza.sk/artkey/csl-202301-0006.php
DE road transport; energy consumption; air pollutant emissions; vehicle survival rate
SN 13354205
AB This study employs the grey models to explore Nigeria's road transport energy consumption, vehicle population and vehicular emissions. The vehicular emissions were evaluated using the European Environment Agency Tier 1 Approach, based on the fuel consumption. A baseline scenario, based on historical data and three other alternative scenarios were developed. The study considered fuel quality, vehicle technology and survival rates as the key drivers of scenario formulation. Results show that vehicle population increases by about 3.58 % annually from 12.9 million units in 2018 to 38.5 million in 2050. Analysis of the alternative pathways reveals that their adoption would significantly reduce road transport energy consumption and air pollutant emissions.
ER