RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
A1 Amulah, Nuhu Caleb
A1 Ekwe, Ekwe Bassey
A1 Ishaq, Muhammad Idriss
A1 Oluwole, Fasiu Ajani
T1 Grey Model Analysis of Vehicle Population, Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions
JF Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina
YR 2023
VO 25
IS 1
SP A1
OP A13
DO 10.26552/com.C.2023.006
UL https://komunikacie.uniza.sk/artkey/csl-202301-0006.php
AB This study employs the grey models to explore Nigeria's road transport energy consumption, vehicle population and vehicular emissions. The vehicular emissions were evaluated using the European Environment Agency Tier 1 Approach, based on the fuel consumption. A baseline scenario, based on historical data and three other alternative scenarios were developed. The study considered fuel quality, vehicle technology and survival rates as the key drivers of scenario formulation. Results show that vehicle population increases by about 3.58 % annually from 12.9 million units in 2018 to 38.5 million in 2050. Analysis of the alternative pathways reveals that their adoption would significantly reduce road transport energy consumption and air pollutant emissions.