PT  - JOURNAL ARTICLE
AU  - Naumov, Vitalii
AU  - Nugymanova, Guldana
AU  - Taran, Ihor
AU  - Litvinova, Yana
TI  - Assessing the Risks of a Freight Forwarder Entering the Transport Market with Stochastic Demand
DP  - 2025 Apr 1
TA  - Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina
PG  - E11--E20
VI  - 27
IP  - 2
AID - 10.26552/com.C.2025.018
IS  - 13354205
AB  - This research investigates freight forwarders' operational risks when entering a new transport market characterized by stochastic demand. A simulation model was developed to represent the service request flow potentially experienced by a freight forwarder in a new market. The proposed model incorporates key operational parameters such as average request interval, service tariff, and request processing time. Based on the simulation results, a regression model was developed to predict the market entry risk. The obtained model demonstrates that the risk increases with longer average request intervals between service requests and decreases with higher service tariffs. The findings provide insights for freight forwarders seeking to enter new markets. The simulation-based approach offers a practical tool for assessing operational risks and informing strategic decisions related to market entry and service pricing.