RT Journal Article
SR Electronic
A1 Naumov, Vitalii
A1 Nugymanova, Guldana
A1 Taran, Ihor
A1 Litvinova, Yana
T1 Assessing the Risks of a Freight Forwarder Entering the Transport Market with Stochastic Demand
JF Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina
YR 2025
VO 27
IS 2
SP E11
OP E20
DO 10.26552/com.C.2025.018
UL https://komunikacie.uniza.sk/artkey/csl-202502-0003.php
AB This research investigates freight forwarders' operational risks when entering a new transport market characterized by stochastic demand. A simulation model was developed to represent the service request flow potentially experienced by a freight forwarder in a new market. The proposed model incorporates key operational parameters such as average request interval, service tariff, and request processing time. Based on the simulation results, a regression model was developed to predict the market entry risk. The obtained model demonstrates that the risk increases with longer average request intervals between service requests and decreases with higher service tariffs. The findings provide insights for freight forwarders seeking to enter new markets. The simulation-based approach offers a practical tool for assessing operational risks and informing strategic decisions related to market entry and service pricing.