Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina 2018, 20(2):56-61 | DOI: 10.26552/com.C.2018.2.56-61
Application of a Priori and a Posteriori Estimate on Risk Assessment
- 1 Department of Security and Safety Research, Faculty of Security Engineering, University of Zilina, Slovakia
- 2 Institute of Mathematics and Scientific Computing, University of Graz, Austria
- 3 Faculty of Security Studies, General Tadeusz Kosciuszko Military University of Land Forces Wroclaw, Poland
The problem of setting the values and interconnections between elements of the models in the safety, protection and security field, appears as the biggest obstacle in taking crisis management decisions. The article attempts to represent a mathematical approach to modify the expected values and interconnections that can occur in the models describing the protected system in order to minimize errors caused by subjectivity. Here presented procedures are described in the examples of their potential use. The main idea is to focus on improving estimates for better response to reality, then to find new estimates, since those would still be weighed down by the subjectivity caused errors. Based on this premise this article attempts to characterize application of mathematical methods on minimizing the subjectivity caused errors in the models in risk assessment.
Keywords: expert estimates; safety; security; mathematical approach
Published: June 30, 2018 Show citation
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