Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina 2022, 24(4):A216-A231 | DOI: 10.26552/com.C.2022.4.A216-A231

Forecasting the road accident rate and the impact of the covid 19 on its frequency in the polish provinces

Piotr Gorzelańczyk ORCID...1, Martin Jurkovič ORCID...2, *, Tomį¹ Kalina ORCID...2, Malaya Mohanty ORCID...3
1 Stanislaw Staszic University of Applied Sciences in Pila, Pila, Poland
2 Department of Water Transport, Faculty of Operation and Economics of Transport and Communications, University of Zilina, Zilina, Slovak Republic
3 KIIT - Kalinga Institute of Industrial Technology, Odisha, India

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the development of road transport, not only in Poland, but also worldwide. Limited mobility, especially at the beginning of the pandemic, had a large impact on the number of road accidents. The aim of the present study is to predict the number of road accidents in Poland and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on variability of the number of road accidents. To attain the objective, annual data on the road accidents for every province in Poland were collected and analysed. Based on historical crash data, obtained from the police, the number of road accidents was forecasted for both pandemic and non-pandemic scenarios. Selected time series models and exponential models were used to forecast the number of accidents.

Keywords: road accident, COVID 19, forecasting, Brownian model, Holt model, Winters model
Grants and funding:

This publication was created thanks to support under the Operational Program Integrated Infrastructure for the project: Identification and possibilities of implementation of new technological measures in transport to achieve safe mobility during a pandemic caused by COVID-19 (ITMS code: 313011AUX5), co-financed by the European Regional Development Fund.

Conflicts of interest:

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Received: July 1, 2022; Revised: September 19, 2022; Accepted: August 26, 2022; Prepublished online: September 20, 2022; Published: October 26, 2022  Show citation

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Gorzelańczyk, P., Jurkovič, M., Kalina, T., & Mohanty, M. (2022). Forecasting the road accident rate and the impact of the covid 19 on its frequency in the polish provinces. Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina, 24(4), A216-231. doi: 10.26552/com.C.2022.4.A216-A231
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