Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina 2023, 25(1):A1-A13 | DOI: 10.26552/com.C.2023.006

Grey Model Analysis of Vehicle Population, Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions

Nuhu Caleb Amulah ORCID...1,*, Ekwe Bassey Ekwe2, Muhammad Idriss Ishaq1, Fasiu Ajani Oluwole1
1 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
2 Energy, Exergy and Environment Research Group (EEERG), Department of Mechanical Engineering, Michael Okpara University of Agriculture Umudike, Umuahia, Nigeria

This study employs the grey models to explore Nigeria’s road transport energy consumption, vehicle population and vehicular emissions. The vehicular emissions were evaluated using the European Environment Agency Tier 1 Approach, based on the fuel consumption. A baseline scenario, based on historical data and three other alternative scenarios were developed. The study considered fuel quality, vehicle technology and survival rates as the key drivers of scenario formulation. Results show that vehicle population increases by about 3.58 % annually from 12.9 million units in 2018 to 38.5 million in 2050. Analysis of the alternative pathways reveals that their adoption would significantly reduce road transport energy consumption and air pollutant emissions.

Keywords: road transport, energy consumption, air pollutant emissions, vehicle survival rate
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The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Conflicts of interest:

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Received: July 18, 2022; Accepted: November 4, 2022; Prepublished online: November 29, 2022; Published: January 25, 2023  Show citation

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Amulah, N.C., Ekwe, E.B., Ishaq, M.I., & Oluwole, F.A. (2023). Grey Model Analysis of Vehicle Population, Road Transport Energy Consumption and Vehicular Emissions. Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina, 25(1), A1-13. doi: 10.26552/com.C.2023.006
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