Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina 2024, 26(1):F13-F22 | DOI: 10.26552/com.C.2024.012

An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road

Piotr Gorzelańczyk ORCID...1, *, Przemysław Grobelny ORCID...2
1 Stanislaw Staszic State University of Applied Sciences in Pila, Pila, Poland
2 Jan Amos Komenski State University of Applied Sciences in Leszno, Leszno, Poland

A surprising number of people die on Polish highways every year. Despite the fact that number is decreasing year after year, it is still rather considerable. Due to the epidemic, the costs of the road accidents were significantly lowered, but they still remain fairly large. Understanding the roads where the majority of accidents happen and the anticipated number of accidents in the next years are necessary to lower this number. The purpose of the article was to forecast the number of accidents that would happen on Polish roads based on the kind of roads. To do this, annual accident statistics from the Police's statistics for the years 2001-2021 were reviewed, and a forecast for the years 2022-2031 was produced. It is clear that either the accident rate is increasing or it is steady. Predictions also suggest that a large increase in accidents on Polish roads may be expected given the current situation.

Keywords: road accident, road type, forecasting, exponential smoothing
Grants and funding:

The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.

Conflicts of interest:

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Received: September 11, 2023; Accepted: November 27, 2023; Prepublished online: December 14, 2023; Published: January 8, 2024  Show citation

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Gorzelańczyk, P., & Grobelny, P. (2024). An Estimate of the Number of Accidents on Polish Highways Based on the Kind of Road. Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina, 26(1), F13-22. doi: 10.26552/com.C.2024.012
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