Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina 2025, 27(2):E11-E20 | DOI: 10.26552/com.C.2025.018

Assessing the Risks of a Freight Forwarder Entering the Transport Market with Stochastic Demand

Vitalii Naumov ORCID...1, *, Guldana Nugymanova ORCID...2, Ihor Taran ORCID...3, Yana Litvinova ORCID...4
1 Transportation Systems Department, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Cracow University of Technology, Cracow, Poland
2 Mukhametzhan Tynyshbaev ALT University, Almaty, Kazakhstan
3 Department of Roads and Bridges, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Architecture, Rzeszow University of Technology, Rzeszow, Poland
4 Transport Management Department, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Dnipro University of Technology, Dnipro, Ukraine

This research investigates freight forwarders' operational risks when entering a new transport market characterized by stochastic demand. A simulation model was developed to represent the service request flow potentially experienced by a freight forwarder in a new market. The proposed model incorporates key operational parameters such as average request interval, service tariff, and request processing time. Based on the simulation results, a regression model was developed to predict the market entry risk. The obtained model demonstrates that the risk increases with longer average request intervals between service requests and decreases with higher service tariffs. The findings provide insights for freight forwarders seeking to enter new markets. The simulation-based approach offers a practical tool for assessing operational risks and informing strategic decisions related to market entry and service pricing.

Keywords: freight forwarding, risk assessment, transportation market, simulation model, regression analysis
Grants and funding:

The authors received no financial support for the research, authorship and/or publication of this article.

Conflicts of interest:

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Received: November 22, 2024; Accepted: January 22, 2025; Prepublished online: February 3, 2025; Published: April 1, 2025  Show citation

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Naumov, V., Nugymanova, G., Taran, I., & Litvinova, Y. (2025). Assessing the Risks of a Freight Forwarder Entering the Transport Market with Stochastic Demand. Communications - Scientific Letters of the University of Zilina, 27(2), E11-20. doi: 10.26552/com.C.2025.018
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